Crude oil prices are projected to fall significantly this year, driven by hopes of a peace deal between the US and Iran, which could lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and a notable drop in Chinese demand for seaborne crude imports.
Brent crude oil prices can touch $150 a barrel (bbl) - up a whopping 103 per cent from the current levels - in the worst-case scenario if the Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions escalate, suggest analysts.
Global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, has cut his exposure to Indian equities by one percentage point in the Asia-Pacific ex-Japan relative-return portfolio, and Australia and Malaysia by half a percentage point each in favour of China, which has seen a hike in exposure by two percentage points. The rally in China has been fast-forwarded by the approach of a seven-day holiday with the CSI 300 Index up 8.5 per cent on Monday, and 25.1 per cent in five trading days, he said.
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
Rating agency Fitch on Tuesday downgraded the US government's top credit rating to AA+ from AAA, citing fiscal deterioration over the next three years and repeated debt ceiling negotiations. The development caused a flutter across equity markets, with most leading frontline global equity indices trading weak. Back home, the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 lost over 1 per cent each in intra-day deals to hit a low of 65,751.53 and 19,517.55 levels, respectively.
Investors and companies should brace for higher commodity prices over the next few weeks in the backdrop of Russian troops attacking Ukraine on Thursday. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden threatened new sanctions against Russia for an act of aggression against Ukraine. All this, analysts believe, can push prices of key commodities such as crude oil, ammonia, urea, potash, and phosphates higher.
An escalation in the already simmering tensions between North and South Korea, China and Taiwan, and Russia and Ukraine could prove to be a bigger worry for the markets over the next few months rather than central bank policy action, said analysts. The markets, they said, are still not fully factoring in this possibility. "The conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia is another geopolitical worry.
'An eerie similarity with 2019 inflation trajectory could now mean that the RBI and market inflation estimates could go awry.'
With the Nifty50 just about 3 per cent away from its all-time closing high of 18,812 points, analysts at BofA Securities suggest investors book profit. Their reasons for the advice include risks like the possibility of a cut in corporate earnings growth forecasts, high valuation (one-year forward P/E of 19.5x), interest rates staying elevated for longer-than-expected and credit tightening. Going ahead, they expect the Nifty50 index to drop to 16,000 levels - down nearly 12 per cent from the current level of 18,255 points, which they believe would be a good time to buy.
'Investors looking at the next 6-12 months can be certain that the Fed will maintain its easing cycle, and we expect the overall environment to be conducive for fixed income investments for portfolio diversification.'
A higher-than-expected consumer price inflation (CPI) print for March in the US has dashed hopes of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) in June. Analysts now expect the US central bank to start cutting rates in September, provided inflation remains in check and oil prices remain supportive. The markets, analysts believe, partially factored in this possibility.
Response to Bt cotton has been favourable and about seven more companies are preparing to release their genetically modified cotton hybrids for commercial use shortly, a study conducted by Rabobank International says.
'We expect the bull-market phase to still persist, but now led by large-caps which offer better valuation and benefit from FII inflows.'
'We expect continued pressure on midcaps, but any sharp correction looks unlikely from here on.'
Adani Green Energy (AGEL) on Tuesday announced it has secured a funding of $1.36 billion from a consortium of international banks as part of its construction financing framework. The $1.36-billion senior debt facility will enhance the company's funding pool to $3 billion since initial project financing in March 2021, AGEL said in a statement. According to the statement, AGEL, India's largest and world's leading renewable energy player, announced a follow-on funding of $1.36 billion to further boost its construction financing framework to $3 billion backed by a consortium of renowned international banks.
Foreign flows into Indian equities are expected to pause in the short to medium term, say analysts. The outlook is influenced by multiple factors, including rising oil prices, actions from global central banks, climbing bond yields, and the dollar index gaining prominence. "Valuations appear rich with the markets at record highs.
The Indian equity market is likely to remain under pressure and rangebound over the next few months. This comes as global central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve look at a possibility of hiking rates aggressively to tame inflation. Back home, the Reserve Bank of India, too, remains data dependent in its endeavour to keep inflation in check and pursue an aggressive monetary policy stance.
'We are not entirely out of the woods.' 'The broader trajectory remains tentative.' 'However, we may expect some near-term bounce.'
Historically, March has been a volatile month for Indian equity markets. To begin with, it marks the end of a financial year, wherein there is some compulsive portfolio rebalancing trade by large funds - domestic and foreign. Retail investors, too, prefer to 'cash in' on their gains and losses before the financial year runs out.
As regards India, FIIs have pumped in over Rs 34,400 crore in the Indian stocks in calendar year 2021.
Given the impact Covid-19 pandemic had over the world economy, analysts expect global central banks, especially the US Fed, to keep the liquidity tap open, which, in turn, is likely to keep the equity markets, especially those in the emerging markets, buoyant.
The markets have been unable to sustain at higher levels as a rise in bond yields globally, especially in the US have dented sentiment. Surging commodity prices, especially crude oil that have now hit $70 a barrel (Brent) coupled with inflation woes and fear of sporadic lockdown across major economic hubs back home as Covid cases rise have chased the bulls away. In the short-term, analysts expect the markets to remain volatile as they react to news flow - both from overseas and developments back home. Investors, they say, need to keep a tab on how the US treasury yields move, which in turn will have a ripple effect on how big money moves across developed (DMs) and emerging markets (EMs), including India.
International Cycling Union chief Pat McQuaid must immediately make clear the governing body's position on the Lance Armstrong doping affair or resign to prevent the collapse of world cycling, a commercial partner of the sport said on Thursday.
'The book captures Rana Kapoor's hunger for real estate leading to bungalows in Delhi, Mumbai, London and other cities; the multiple companies -- over 100 -- to fund his family's various ventures; the attempt to game the system by showing lower non-performing assets,' notes Joydeep Ghosh.
The German Hockey Association has decided to send their development team for the Champions Trophy
'We plan to touch Rs 1 trillion of Amul brand's turnover in the next five years.'
'What made him different was that he was not a banker at all by temperament.' 'He was a businessman, a typical lalaji at that.' 'He had to win at any cost.'
Shagun Kapur Gogia might not have convinced her uncle Rana Kapoor, managing director and chief executive of YES Bank, to appoint her as a board member of the bank, but it appears she has successfully carved out her own space in the financial world.
'Our technology is going to help Indian agriculture the way the White Revolution helped milk production.'
The National Associations of Australia, England, India, Malaysia, and New Zealand have all put up extremely strong cases in an attempt to lure the sport's top properties to their territory, the FIH said.
India has been awarded the 2018 men's hockey World Cup, the second time in a span of eight years the country will be hosting the mega event.
Some players have already raised prices; others in wait-and-watch mode.
